A Statistical Breather After Months of Adjustment

The administration of Javier Milei has managed to halt the decline in its political capital. According to the Government Confidence Index (ICG) published by the prestigious Torcuato Di Tella University, the June measurement reached 2.07 points, representing a 3.9% increase compared to May. This figure is significant as it breaks a negative streak of five consecutive months of decline during 2026.

For international readers, the ICG is a key statistical thermometer in Argentina, measuring public trust on a scale from 0 (no confidence) to 5 (high confidence). The technical report, based on surveys by Poliarquía Consultores, indicates that previous variations were negative: January (-2.8%), February (-0.6%), March (-3.5%), April (-12.1%), and May (-1.6%). Although the general evaluation remains low historically, this rebound offers a signal of stability in the 30th month of governance.

The Phenomenon in the Suburbs and Lower Education Sectors

Demographic analysis reveals interesting shifts. The Greater Buenos Aires (GBA)—the industrial belt surrounding the capital city, a critical electoral district—led the recovery with an 11.1% increase in confidence, reaching 1.83 points. Additionally, the segment of the population with only primary education showed the most significant jump, climbing 42.5%, returning to April levels.

Notably, for the first time in months, the index was slightly higher among those who reported being victims of crime (2.10 points) compared to those who were not (2.07 points), closing a negative gap that had persisted previously.