25/06/2026 22:52 - Politica
JD Vance has made the biggest wager of his vice presidency by becoming the face of the cease-fire agreement with Iran—a fragile pact already showing signs of fraying at multiple seams.
After months in political limbo due to the war, this could be the vice president's best opportunity to reclaim his place in the administration. However, the consequences of potential failure could be devastating for his 2028 presidential aspirations.
A sense of unease had taken hold of the vice president's camp since the administration launched its war against Iran in February 2026. Vance, a vocal opponent of "forever wars" from previous administrations (he had served as a combat correspondent in Iraq), now found himself defending the largest US military intervention in the Middle East in a generation.
Publicly, he had been excluded from the war room at Mar-a-Lago and seemed distant from conflict planning. Privately, journalists received briefings about his opposition to the war.
"We could see he was deeply uncomfortable with the war," said one of Vance's former Senate colleagues. "This isn't what he joined the administration for... But he chose to play along with Trump."
According to insiders, this situation has even endangered Vance's likely presidential bid for 2028, where he remains the presumptive Republican favorite but has lost ground to Marco Rubio, a foreign policy hawk who has proven himself a competent diplomat and security official.
"To many voters, Vance now represents a deeply unpopular administration presiding over a faltering economy, geopolitical decline, and a catastrophic war with Iran," wrote Andrew Day of the American Conservative. "What seemed predetermined—Vance 2028—can no longer be taken for granted."
"Vance, to move forward, will first have to define himself," the analyst added. The task is significant: he must balance his anti-interventionist image with his current role in an administration that has launched the largest military intervention in the Middle East in decades.
No one doubted Vance was taking a risk when he took on the mantle of negotiating with Iran through Pakistani mediators. He was leading the highest-level engagement between US and Iranian officials since the Iranian revolution and diplomatic crisis of 1979.
The talks took place in Emmen, Switzerland, with photographs showing Vance actively participating in high-level negotiations.
As terms became public, Vance was left presenting Iran with conditions that made him a target of hawkish and pro-Israel members of his own party. Publicly, he had praised the highest-level contacts with Iranian officials in generations, leading critics to label him too credulous regarding Iranian promises.
Worse still, he was regularly undermined by the White House, with Trump threatening to resume attacks on Iran and even kill Iranian negotiators while talks were ongoing.
As usual, Vance sought to smooth Trump's rougher edges:
"What we told the Iranians yesterday is that when you engage in what we millennials might call trash talk, you can't expect the President of the United States not to respond and not correct the record."
In an interview with Ross Douthat of the New York Times, Vance offered an unusually critical assessment of Israeli foreign policy in the region:
"What exactly is your proposal? You're a country of 9 million people. You can't simply kill your way out of every national security problem you have."
The agreement faces multiple challenges: Israel announced it will not withdraw troops from southern Lebanon, undermining negotiations as Iran sees ending the Lebanon war as part of the deal with the US. Additionally, Iran rejected the UN-backed plan to evacuate trapped ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
The stakes for Vance couldn't be higher. Once again, the White House has made clear it is extremely lax in policy terms, but has little tolerance for failure.
This was Trump's statement on the peace deal—an almost exact repetition of a joke he had made at Rubio's expense over a year earlier. Back then, Rubio seemed the outsider in the new Trump administration. But now it's Vance in the hot seat.
For nearly a week, Vance was featured on television to sell the Iran deal and other controversial Trump policies to the American public. He was questioned on The View, where Whoopi Goldberg and Joy Behar both launched criticisms at the sitting vice president.
"Are you his interpreter or his vice president? Come on," Behar exclaimed at Vance at one point.
The conflict with Iran began on February 28, 2026 and has left more than 3,700 dead to date.
The strait remains blocked since the conflict began, with hundreds of ships trapped and mined routes.
Iran demands Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, more than 600 km² currently occupied.
Many are asking whether Vance can navigate this political minefield without becoming precisely what Trump already suggested: the scapegoat for a crumbling deal.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
