22/07/2026 19:17 - Economia
The National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (INDEC, the country's main public agency for statistics) published the data for the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE, an indicator similar to a monthly GDP) corresponding to May. The report, released on July 22, 2026, revealed a positive year-on-year variation of 0.2%, showing that the Argentine economy remains in positive territory compared to the previous year.
Although the seasonally adjusted measurement showed a 0.5% drop compared to April, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, highlighted on his social media that the trend-cycle indicator grew 0.2% monthly and accumulated 26 consecutive months of expansion, marking the longest growth cycle since 2011. Furthermore, economic activity accumulated a growth of 1.7% during the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period last year.
The positive performance is mainly explained by the momentum of key sectors such as agriculture and mining, which showed a remarkable dynamic recovery.
The combination of agriculture and mining contributed 1.2 percentage points to the year-on-year growth of the EMAE, offsetting difficulties in other sectors of the domestic market.
On the other hand, some sectors linked to consumption and industrial transformation showed year-on-year declines.
For the second half of the year, the economic team led by Minister Caputo aims for the construction sector to be the engine of recovery. Initiatives revolve around the presentation of a tax amnesty program known as Tax Innocence (Inocencia Fiscal) and the concession of 9,000 kilometers of national routes.
Additionally, alternatives are being evaluated to stimulate mortgage credit, both in pesos and dollars. Among the proposals is the sale of shares of the Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS)—a state fund originally designed to back the Argentine pension system—and the restructuring of the Labor Assistance Funds (FAL). It is estimated that these measures could inject between USD 15 billion and USD 20 billion into the mortgage market, facilitating access to housing for the middle class.
Consultancies and economists point out that the May data came slightly below market expectations, which had anticipated a rebound driven by the heavy harvest. Gonzalo Carrera, from the firm Equilibra, noted that 'the recovery of construction and the continuous growth of energy/mining were not enough to compensate' for the poor performance of industry and commerce in the monthly measurement.
However, Federico Filippini, from Adcap Grupo Financiero, emphasized that 'the weakness of domestic activity is being offset by a solid performance on the external front.' The main question for analysts will be whether the implemented policies will manage to consolidate a robust recovery looking ahead to 2027, taking advantage of exchange rate stability and low inflation to reactivate consumption and the labor market.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
